ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of the population living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this statistic in its October 2026 regional economic update. Poverty levels were gauged against the international threshold of $3 per day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that benchmark increased by 6.4 percentage points. This rise positioned Pakistan as the primary contributor to extreme poverty within MENAAP.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together make up another 47% of those living below the $3 threshold across the region. Alongside Pakistan, these three nations constitute roughly 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor. Currently, the region houses about 14% of the world’s population living in extreme poverty, with Sub-Saharan Africa holding a larger share. MENAAP remains the only region where poverty levels are above pre-pandemic figures and continue to rise.
At the higher $4.20 daily income level, used for lower-middle-income economies, Pakistan’s poverty situation also worsened. The percentage of people living below this line increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. The rate reached nearly 48% in 2024, up from 44.7% in 2018. The regional report attributes this decline to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation, and extended economic adjustment measures. These factors are identified as key drivers behind the worsening poverty indicators in Pakistan.
Rise in Poverty Levels Follows Multiple Economic Shocks
Earlier in 2026, new household survey data led to a significant revision of regional poverty estimates. The updated figures increased MENAAP’s estimated 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%, adding around 21 million people to the regional count of those living in extreme poverty. As of September 2026, MENAAP remained one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, the other being Sub-Saharan Africa.
Despite a return to positive economic growth, Pakistan’s poverty levels stay high. The latest forecasts project GDP growth of 3.7% in fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% in fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita growth is expected at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is anticipated to be 7.1% in 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027. Therefore, inflation is forecasted to surpass the previous year’s estimate even as the economy continues to expand.
Classification Changes Impact Regional Poverty Comparisons
The 48% figure also reflects a statistical reclassification that affected regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank shifted Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. Pakistan’s government clarified that this administrative change did not alter the country’s geographic identity or income classification. However, finance minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the new grouping affected regional poverty figures because Pakistan’s large population was included in MENAAP calculations, thereby influencing the overall regional poverty share.
The October report also highlighted weaker economic prospects across MENAAP in 2026. It projects a regional contraction of 2.1% following 3.3% growth in 2025. Ongoing conflicts and disruptions to energy, logistics, and trade impacted economic activity in several economies. Still, developing oil-importing countries, including Pakistan, are expected to be comparatively resilient, with an estimated growth of 4.3% in 2026. Rising costs of food and energy continue to put pressure on household purchasing power across multiple nations.